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In March 2011, aerospace-and-defense market analyst firm Teal Group announced findings of its 2011 study of the global market for unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) systems. In the study, Teal analysts estimate that worldwide spending on UAV systems will nearly double over the course of 10 years, from a current annual level of $5.9 billion to $11.3 billion. (See chart at bottom of page.) All told, more than $94 billion will be spent on UAVs over the next decade, according to Teal's "World Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Systems 2011 Market Profile and Forecast." It is the firm's eighth edition of this study.
Teal Group's director of corporate analysis, and one of the study's authors, Phillip Finnegan says that defense-spending cuts will not deter growth in the UAV sector, citing the technology's documented success in Afghanistan and Iraq. In the study's executive overview authors Finnegan, Steven J. Zaloga and Dr. David Rockwell explain, "The most significant catalyst to this market has been the enormous growth of interest in UAVs by the U.S. military, tied to the general trend towards information warfare and net-centric systems, as well as peacekeeping operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. UAVs are a key element in the intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) portion of this revolution, and they are expanding into other missions as well with the advent of hunter-killer UAVs. This study suggests that the U.S. will account for 77 percent of the R&D spending on UAV technology over the next decade, and about 69 percent of the procurement. These represent higher shares of the market than for defense spending in general."
The study breaks down UAV spending into R&D and procurement, segmented by regions of the world. It also forecasts UAV production by vehicle type. In its summary of geographic uptake, Teal says it "expects that the sales of UAVs will follow recent patterns of high-tech arms procurement worldwide, with the Asia-Pacific area representing the second largest market, followed very closely by Europe. Indeed, the Asia-Pacific region may represent an even larger segment of the market, but several significant players in the region, namely Japan and China, are not especially transparent about their plans compared to Europe. As in the case of many cutting-edge aerospace products, Africa and Latin America are expected to be very modest markets for UAVs."
The authors also note an interesting dynamic that they expect to unfold over the next 10 years: "There appear to be wide swings and dips in unit acquisition over the forecast decade that are not matched by similar swings in the production value. This is primarily due to the volatile mini-UAV market, which represents very large numbers of air vehicles even though unit costs are extremely low compared to other UAVs, especially endurance types. Our forecast expects a significant drop in U.S. mini-UAV acquisition as combat operations wind down in Iraq and Afghanistan. This will have a significant effect on unit numbers though not on dollar values."
The nature of UAVs' work requires that the electronic systems and components within them, including interconnect products, withstand harsh conditions. Connectors built into UAVs experience vibration, shock, and temperature and humidity swings. The image at the top of this page shows proof testing being conducted on a Northrop Grumman X-47B UCAS Air Vehicle 2.
As our sister site Military and Aerospace Electronics has reported, UAVs continue to be the hot sector within the military market. Bob Stanton, worldwide sales manager for Omnetics, told Military & Aerospace Electronics, "The largest growth in number of designs and useful equipment seems to be in the portable, miniature UAVs. From watching ice-melt rate in Spitzbergen, Norway to portable systems being employed at the Arizona border, we see the small, lightweight systems becoming a very large market niche. Connectors used in these applications must combine the features of rugged, lightweight, and handle surveillance-type signal processing."
Hypertronics' industry manager for the mil-aero segment John Binder added, "If you look at the DOD [Department of Defense] budget every service agency in military" and even non-military agencies, are looking to have UAV programs.
Daniel Spycher, international sales director for Fischer Connectors SA said of UAV-connector requirements, "The changing role of the UAV market spawned a revolution in environmentally durable, lightweight and portable products. Suppliers to the UAV sector must have products that can perform perfectly in highly sophisticated surveillance and reconnaissance systems. Devices must be rugged, sealed, compact, lightweight, shock-resistant and stealth in appearance."
If Teal Group's analysis rings true, connector-product development will have to continue over the next decade to meet the continuing needs for and of UAVs. Teal Group's Rockwell notes, "The payload portion of the 2011 study includes many new systems and system types, with expanded coverage of SIGINT/EW and SAR markets. Few now question the U.S. Air Force's claim that ISR is the centerpiece of our global war on terrorism, with production beginning for major endurance UAV systems such as MP-RTIP and ASIP, new RDT&E programs such as wide-angle EO/IR systems, a variety of ground and foliage-penetrating radars, and future development efforts to bring large-aircraft capabilities to small UAVs; tactical and mini/micro/nano-UAVs will continue to offer some of the best electronics opportunities over the next decade."
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