In spite of the intense rain in Anaheim, CA, attendees came out in strong numbers for the IPC Printed Circuits Expo/APEX/Designers Summit, held February 22-24, 2005, at the Anaheim Convention Center. At the conference, the International Electronics Manufacturing Initiative (iNEMI) revealed its most recent roadmap, 40 pages of which are all about connectors.
“We are seeing heartening trends from most of the sectors covered by our roadmap,” said Jim McElroy, executive director and CEO of iNEMI, at a conference keynote on February 24. “The good news is that expansion has returned to the electronics industry. Growth rates are in the 5% range, versus the double-digit growth of the 90s, but recovery seems to be steady. Although most growth is from evolutionary technologies, break-through products are still possible. Take, for example, the Apple iPod.”
One of the most significant technology shifts highlighted by the roadmap is the prediction that Moore’s Law may soon reach its limit. Moore’s Law describes the prediction that the processing power of computer chips will double approximately every 18 months at a fixed cost. This could mean the end of semiconductor scaling (the continued shrinking of feature size that has supported aggressive improvements in density, performance, and function) and the semiconductor industry as we know it. Gordon Moore himself (co-founder of Intel) has predicted that a fundamental limit to Moore’s Law will be reached around 2017. Now, industry experts expect scaling to meet its limits by about 2015, meaning that continued improvements will have to be achieved in some other way, according to the iNEMI roadmap.
Other ways around the fundamental atomic-scale limit to Moore’s Law might include 3-D chips, or transitors made of carbon nanotubes. Optical computing comes to mind as the next way to scale computer processing power. Cost seems to be the deathnell for optics, but there have been less far-fetched ideas. Many unemployed optical engineers (or previously unemployed ones who are now mortgage underwriters or photographers) welcome the thought!
Our features this month are all about this topic of pushing the limit. Doug Parker and Phil Nguyen of Tempo Research (Camarillo, CA) present the latest standards for fiberoptics in harsh environments, such as in avionics or naval ships (see p. 12). Phil Baynes of Sabritec (Irvine, CA) discusses how RF/microwave filter connectors can withstand the elements in military applications through layered planar-array capacitors (p. 16).
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May your March go out like a lamb.
Valerie Coffey, Editor-in-Chief
valeriec@pennwell.com
